it's all by way of saying that an agreement is possible but both sides need to stop saying no to the others can pick up jim thanks very much for your time it's my pleasure. the issue is that so much in a moment that's mayors and i mean to say show me how many people are hearing economic recovery in the developed world a sluggish at best and there are fears of a double dip recession hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars.

this history still keeps its secrets but now it's time to reveal the shipment to the soviet files you can see in case ever more on.

the. soon which brightened a few of the songs from phones to transition to. the screw starts on t.v. dot com. one year in moscow thanks for being with us on our t.v. zero headlines new details of emerged after russian pilots managed to crash land a crippled passenger plane. in the russian republic of komi on tuesday all eighty one people aboard the tupelo one five four had

a miraculous escape when it overshot a remote airstrip and came to rest in the middle of the forest. the u.s. army has slammed the former sergeant for planting grenades in the cars of the rockies at checkpoints just for fun he filled himself and the reaction of drivers posted it all on you tube. and britain the special envoy to afghanistan has stepped down from his post it's speculated it's sparked speculation that search or are super cold was forced out because of his continued criticism of the military campaign. coming up the world is the world about to experience a double dip recession some insiders seem to think so the debate coming up next on peter lavelle's crosstalk stay with us here on r.t. .

if you can. follow in welcome to cross talk i'm peter lavelle when it comes to the global recession three letters say it all deb u l n u economic recovery in the developed world is sluggish at best and there are fears of a double dip recession hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent to stimulate economies why hasn't it worked. can. you discuss the state of the global economy i'm joined by martin henniker in hong kong he's an associate director at the tike group in frankfurt we go to william endo economic research center and the author of the new book gods of money wall street and the death of the american century and in boston we go to peter cohen

he's the president of peter cohen associates and author of capital rising how capital flows are changing business systems all over the world and another member of our cross talk team on the hunger martin if i go to you first in hong kong you've got three letters w. l. and you pick one and why. none of them i'm very commies in the western countries they have never been they have never been in any assad's offer of coverage they just have been destroying trillions of dollars at the problem if you give me trillions of dollars i can produce a few more cars and remember my g.d.p. figure. to some extent of course but if it's just all financed by debt that it's going to hyperbolic out of control exponentially that doesn't mean anything at all the us isn't even in a recession it's more in a depression already now and the real question in our war really is is this depression going to lead to hyperinflation or is it going to lead to a different nation or

a collapse of the system like you saw in nine hundred twenty nine in an hour we'll it's going to be i've been faking because the governments in the west we have had many many warnings of there's even a chinese rating agencies who are basically supported by the government and i was saying the u.s. is insolvent and faces benghazi so we're not particularly optimistic on the west ok morning we're going to stay with you real quick here is there any letter in the alphabet you would choose. do you ever since the straight guy and it's straight it's a straight down die and as not been any bones to back basically the big problem is the best and is they have been d.n.a. test realizing that productive industry has gone to the police and countries as specially to china even long before they put us in a frenzy krises you could see it coming because it was i saw the industry is asian and the house of cards a bit on bad what happened in two thousand and eight basically the rest and banking system went bankrupt the banks who are us from collapse they have admitted it in germany and the u.k. and the us they have all admitted that there are us in in some cases they said that

if your days away from allows in the u.k. they actually said they were hours before they wanted to close the case machines from the banking system so in order to prevent this banking system from collapsing what they did is governments bad all the banks in the process the governments and even higher in international beverages now the problem is a soldier and one bob is the biggest bob in history now if you say. i'm here and balance if i could jump in you will you may have been on the program before and i have a pretty good idea what you think about these things can you be more pessimistic than martin. i think i can be equally especially mystic i think a lot of that describes the situation in the united states certainly use the letter d m like the great depression in the thirty's there is no leeway in terms of federal debt the federal government has just maxed out on its on its credit card to china to japan and other countries. now they're in

a situation where even the generals are warning against the overindebtedness of of the united states as a national security issue i want to finish and i want to get back to that issue a little bit later if i go to you peter are you going to be a little optimism here. absolutely i think they're both have very interesting theories that as a citizen of the united states i'm just not seeing it what i'm seeing is that we've had three quarters in a row of positive g.d.p. growth where we're forecasting very slow economic growth of about one to one point four percent for the rest of the year in the bond market and the real problem here is that we've lost eight point four million jobs since december two thousand and seven and what we're not getting is enough new jobs we need about three hundred thousand jobs a month in order to revive the economy and my basic theme is that america has a great fundamental strength which is the ability to commercialize ideas

intellectual property and we saw that really created lots of jobs in the sixty's seventy's eighty's and ninety's we had a las decade george w. bush and now we have an opportunity to revive that innovation engine and i didn't if i didn't play here and i think i did and all goes days are gone in the united states everything has been outsourced mentioned at the beginning to asia and to other countries even that the jobs that are being created in the united states are call center jobs because the wages in india have become too high for call centers i mean that gives you an idea and i don't think it is and i prefer i understand what you're saying but i think i think really it is a right here you go first and we're going to go to martin peter go ahead. ok what i see going on is that i talk to a lot of venture capitalists i'm a venture capitalist myself and i see them investing in start up companies now what i think is missing is a technology that will unleash corporate spending corporations in the u.s.

have accumulated one point four trillion in cash that they're just sitting on because they haven't found a good place to invest it so what i'm looking at is trying to get a new technology on the order of the internet or many computers or or p.c.'s that will unleash a wave of investment by. companies and that will create lots of jobs now that. you don't have. anywhere else martin to jump in here go right. martin let's follow up on what peter just said i mean why maybe he's right maybe could be technology based but why would it happen in the united states why don't you just have the same investments in in healthy economies like the regrown we. do the same thing we do is there go ahead yes exactly i mean most of the asian countries and some other emerging market countries are they have far far lower debt they're still have lower cost and then a lot of that knowledge is moving also to china to even big big u.s. multinational companies so it's really only a financial bubble

a property bubble and then some military that's left their base an intern ited states are just adding on whatever i wanted to jump in there earlier really a mention of the job growth maybe cause and the jobs there actually for me as a matter of fact the fastest growing for exports right now of the united states is sheep. and sheriff so what you can tell from this is that it's obvious i mean on the on the positive side result without laughing actually evolved on the positive side as other colleagues on this there's actually a statistic that in the united states that they can have because they do have a lot of agricultural end we have seen agricultural prices and china's importing a lot more of their star their important gone from the united states but that's where you see the only sector actually that has some good prospects in the united states apart from that run really they're optimistic and again you know we see the other economies as much better but one other question just a follow up to two peter i just wonder if you go to boston university peter if i

may ask you that. no i didn't i've taught there but i didn't go to boston university but i went to mit and mit is responsible for an awful lot of new jobs a lot of innovation you know the world wide web came from tim berners lee is a professor at mit so i mean i think that person what we are missing is that they have the order of the undergraduate class at mit today is u.s. born what percentage of the undergraduate i'm sorry gentlemen i don't know you know i think he's just been here i mean the last week a group there was a big con fab of economists in italy and i think it's an annual event here and there was a lot of pessimism in many of them walked away from this comment saying one in one in three is one in three chance will be a double dip but some of the really bigger names were saying that they were more certain of that and that we keep hearing the same to the u.s. government and the european union they have they don't have any tools left in their box ok to fix these problems here there's no there are no more bullets left i think

is what was being said if i could go to you martin what can they do i mean if they've tried everything fiscally monetary really i mean are we really that way in a way that we cannot dig our way out of this because it's an l. ok we just have to learn to live with fewer things we have to learn to live poorer i'll be very frank with you this kind of lifestyle that we've had in the twentieth century early twentieth century is over at least for the west. yes and i don't think even as an m.s.i. thing we have we had just the worst is still ahead of us in the western countries because what i just mentioned earlier and two dozen a the battle of the banks and the bank of the government in the process saw in two thousand and ten you had the rico government's going bank which is actually in this case this thousand european countries and europe has mostly the same problems as the united states those going bankrupt meant the stronger countries better the weaker countries now the next thing that's going to happen is a stronger countries go bankrupt and then you have some form of of one crash or

currency or hyperinflation but once you have what happened then you can start a new is a new currency or you have some form of bankruptcy reorganization to grid of this kind of that to start a new about until and unless that happens really don't really invest in in those areas and one other thing create. peter before if you rented to the boston university actually there's one economics professor at the boston university richard actually hold in quite high regard is name is a laurence kotlikoff and he has written. about the fiscal gap of the united states because that's much more important than the nation are dead today we're talking about because the fiscal gap actually includes all those unfunded liabilities of social security medicare and so on that the united states have and that figure is fifteen times larger than the national debt it's two hundred two trillion a us dollar that's absolutely staggering figure so in some way there's going to be some kind of almost some debt before the has to happen and then he also publish

your report saying is the united states bankrupt and that was even in the federal reserve bank always under louis a reviewer so definitely what i would recommend be to look this up this guy isn't too far from you in boston and he actually points the finger of what's the real problem you know you can trust the short term get a piece of this if they're manipulated as are the unemployment figures you know i mean it's real unemployment is twenty two percent they changed the way they did it in one thousand nine hundred four they don't collen anyone anymore was given up looking for a dog their schools. and i was in also the fish i was in the interrogation i went to the drawing before and before me joey but continue here we have to go to a short break and then we'll continue our discussion on the double dip stay with r.t. . the kitchen sisters .

dramatic example of the firmness. courage. and honor. they managed not only to stay alive. but to keep their faces and souls in inhuman circumstances. nine hundred days in besieged linen ran through the eyes of the survivors. if. when the news is not enough. when it's something really crucial when you want to get down to brass tacks when you bring up special coverage. this time the latest news from the slum of the most

policy form mine broadcasts special guests discussions on the end of the modern state in providing security and stability of the present day world. question more on. welcome back to crosstalk i'm here about to remind you we're talking about the possibility of a double dip recession. but before let's see what russians think about the global crisis what will the growth line take what's led oh well defined the recession w. l.

or he off to show some limited growth the world's major economies remain in danger of slipping back into another recession then the love agency recently asked russians what they think about their country's economic recovery twenty five percent of respondents said russia is emerging from the crisis period twenty two percent believe recovery is on its way and another nineteen percent believe this it will at least not worsen however twenty four percent believe the crisis will beep but the overall trend is optimistic and russia's economic expectations are returning to pre-crisis levels. peter i want to go to you in boston i mean as an investor you have a vested interest in all of this here what should what should the current administration do in the united states and what should the europeans be doing because i mean have they done it right i mean a lot of people are very very worried about money is there being people very

skittish now about investing i mean it's extraordinary that banks became weighted so much money and profits when the rest of the economy is is really got going into the gutter what should the decision makers be doing now in europe in the united states. well i think what's needed right now is a bigger stimulus package i mean they passed an eight hundred billion dollars stimulus package last year they should have passed a one point two trillion dollars stimulus package just because of the enormity of the downturn that the administration inherited you know it's clearly on the order of what happened during the great depression and the mistake they made back then was trying to balance the budget too soon we're already getting into this kind of talk now frankly the administration has not done a good enough job of of forcefully defending its position and it's trying to sort of square the circle too much politically and as a result it's going to lose a lot of ground in the midterm elections so right now you're not going to see

a lot of changes in policy you're going to see some extensions of an r. and d. tax credit little tweaks here and there that can pass politically you're not going to see the kind of scale of intervention that i think you really need to boost the economy i think the basic idea is that you need to prime the pump of economic activity in the private sector and i think that's the idea of stimulus is that you get some economic activity going you get consumer spending that increases demand increases hiring and that kind of creates a virtuous cycle of growth ok all he really what we need is we can just one more thing to really any of. this asked a question for everybody here i mean can can any can we keep her going into debt to try to solve this crisis i mean how much more low we're going to go and yet i mean what is by two thousand and thirty what is it going to be one hundred twenty percent of g.d.p. william go ahead i mean i love i mean we're helping out all she and all but we bet we're going to bankrupt ourselves in the process go ahead will yeah well this is

not a question of theoretically the federal government the united states can go into indebtedness as long as the world is stupid enough to keep buying the government bonds but those days are coming to a close i think fairly soon the problem is it's not a question of four hundred billion dollars plus or minus. the stimulus is just like water going down the bath tub it's look they stopped the housing stimulus in april and in may the worst housing starts crash took place in decades and it's an economy being held together by artificial life support because seven financial institutions in new york the gods of money as i call them in my new book . in wall street they have looted and leached the anything healthy left in the american economy over the last thirty years or a century since the gold dollar decoupling in seventy one and you have as a result of that. the chance was missed in two thousand and seven had had the

government and out in the united states and the treasury not been controlled by goldman sachs and wall street as it was or timothy geithner in the new york fed and now in the u.s. treasury. if you would out a sensible intelligent government concerned about the nation's welfare they would have nationalized five to seven of those institutions immediately and done what sweden did in the early ninety's with a secure room good bank bad bank a model that was considered anathema it was called socialist by henry paulson the treasury secretary at the time and as a result trillions of dollars of taxpayer money went to bail out the wall street friends of goldman sachs henry paulson and not only that the federal reserve ben bernanke he refuses to say what he has done what the federal reserve has done with its money creation it's over the top now. mark mentioned the these statistics from from this boston professor about the unfunded liabilities of social security and

medicare and so forth it's just. the banks have been looted the country sucked up to the bone and there is no impulse there is no internet this going to fix this one the united states is a basket case economy europe is less so because. still germans still make the best cars in the western world in the world buys those cars in the steel and other industry is still intact united states has outsourced everything including its brains to the rest of the world and lives as a service economy and it's back ok martin i mean what do we do now i mean you and william painted a very very depressing picture here is there any way out there is there a solution or just suck it up. i totally agree with this basically everything william said on the united states although i disagree a bit on the euro because i think. germany the rest of your below and that sucked

into the mind of europe and germany is a government that even is now and the deficit are also knowledge an all time record and germany has it's already it's all in. trouble to meet the obligations on the ordination of the and then there are mind of europe basically the industry looks more or less the same as as it doesn't the united states and debt ratios are also close to what the united states is in the u.k. they say so and then in terms of how or how you are pad the situation no we are not particularly optimistic and beyond really politicians easy i mean again mention i mean what really actually is said is you should have probably let a lot of those banks fail i mean many of the wall street being there on drily bangs out because senos they just they visit money and if they if they get it wrong they get by the taxpayer if they get it right they just take it out as a bonus quickly enough so that when later on so are things done so are they there to get the taxpayer money again so that was the big problem but now really i don't really see an easy fix was

a solution even from the federal reserve printing more money of a have more power it's not going to work because i learned greenspan even alan greenspan even recommended homeowners before the borrower came on to take all of these. mortgages the federal reserve made it much much worse so i'd best they're very incompetent or worse they're actually part of these banks that have sucked the u.s. dry if you want to so we don't see a solution we just say investment wise stay out of the u.s. stay out of any u.s. bonds all of us a lot of you will put your money gold asia and some other commodities ok. i think what we have to look at is a global picture and the magnet for industrial dynamism and for. structure investment in the world right now all the countries of your asia i've said that repeatedly on this show but it's a fact that you have not only china china can't do it alone you have russia which has huge infrastructure deficits from the from the soviet era and the financial

crises that the i.m.f. and friends george soros and others helped along with in the ninety's and early part of this decade but russia still has considerable resources and they have huge resources of hydrocarbons that are in deficit in china you have the former the stands in between russia and china the shanghai cooperation countries plus you have the middle east oil rich middle east and africa so i think what's going on is a dynamic there with turkey playing a much more interesting role in all of this dynamic there that the european economies are beginning european industries beginning to orient to and look away from the atlantic bridge of the last fifty five sixty years and that i think is the long term way out of this mess and it's not going to call from hoping for a recovery in the united states you know radically enough peter in boston you know

and looking at the the numbers that have been coming out of the united states and again the there are split opinions here i mean on which direction it's going to go but do you think you know you're the in your the american in america on this show is there the political will in the united states to really tighten belts realizing that the kind of lifestyle that the united states has had the last half century is simply has to change because you know every get a credit card demand every other week go out and spend and spend and spend i mean really i mean is there you see in the end i'm thinking of this tea party movement and things like that because the realization that americans may have to start living their lives in a different way. no i don't think so i think what you have is america that is optimistic and is looking for leadership that will create new innovations i mean there's no other country in the world that is as good at creating new innovations as america i mean the sixty's we had mainframes on all the seventy's we

had many computers in the eighty's we had p.c.'s in the ninety's we had the internet and now we are developing new technologies none of them have reached the scale of the internet yet but we're developing new technologies that will boost productivity for organizations around the world and that is going to create jobs all this other talk is finance is the tail what are you the obama administration. charge me bar and i want to get marginal last word here mark where you invest in the area and we want to hear my. gold silver are very kosher commodities but the physical stuff i mean the physical gold is there not some paper wardak on there's eighty times more paper over there than the physical metals and then in asia style emerging markets even there will be a mention but i also want to do a really really really create there are actually those people in the united states who are aware of what's happening what you just ask about the tea partiers and why our way our way or where there's a growing in their beds needs to be tightened for example the woman their own ron

paul the texas congressman ron paul who was also the presidential candidate before so that's that's really one of the few also they have but right now they don't look like they've got any chance to win to morrow to move ahead and dangle our general election and see where the economy goes maybe we'll all get together in the next corner many thanks to my guest today in hong kong frankfurt and boston and thanks to our viewers for watching this here r.t. so you next time and remember prost are things. you. feel. wealthy british style but. sometimes it's because.